Story Lines – Week 3

Every week I look over the games and write down my thoughts, notes on stats or trends, and any predictions I may have. I do this just for myself already in preparation for the Next Week, Tonight series. I also have included Over/Under lines as that is valuable in a few ways when predicting game scripts, as well as simply for any bets one wishes to make.

In Week 2, I was 11-4 in predicting team winners (one matchup got left out). Meanwhile, I was 5-10 on Over/Unders. Generally I missed on the Overs as I overestimated some of these offenses.

I’m publishing these as is with limited editing. Hopefully they are of some use and will at least be sources of discussion and full transparency of my takes.

Bengals @ Bills  – O/U 44

  • Gore has fantasy relevant day
  • John Brown has a nice day vs Bengals D that gives up big plays
  • Bills with the Over

Lions @ Eagles – O/U 47

  • Stafford continue to make the doubters pay.
  • Possibly the Miles Sander’s breakout if Jeffery doesn’t play, but currently looks like he will.
  • Ertz to keep getting fed
  • Not trusting Agholor
  • Kerryon is the right kind of back to exploit Eagles D
  • Lion with the Over

Jets @ Pats – O/U 44

  • Here we go again. Start em up
  • Bell will get a lot of short targets again. Solid PPR start regardless of NFL result
  • Sony getting 18+ touches in victories. Don’t normally peg Bill as the type to run out a game, but running is definitely in the plan.
  • With AB’s release, I wonder if they go back to some of the plans they for some two back sets?
  • Dorsett may be the most under the radar player in NFL through two weeks.
  • Patriots, but the Under

Raiders @ Vikings – O/U 43.5

  • Vikings Receivers comeback
  • Waller has another good day. Remember what Hooper did to this defense Week 1?
  • Vikings, Over

Ravens @ Chiefs – O/U 55

  • Oh My.
  • Starting everyone.
  • If McCoy is out as well as Damien, expect DARRELL, not Darwin, to be the lead back.
  • Darwin certainly involved in pass game though.
  • Lamar hasn’t had to run much but they haven’t played from behind much, we might see it more.
  • Someone else like a Boykins or Justice Hill are going to need to step up.
  • Chiefs and I think its over.

Falcons @ Colts – O/U 47

  • Freeman bounceback. Buy Now.
  • Brissett a good stream
  • Campbell needs to get worked in more.
  • Falcons, Over

Broncos @ Packers – O/U 42.5

  • If Jamaal Williams is out, Aaron Jones is hard not to like.
  • Royce is outplaying Lindsay, but still expect an annoying split
  • Packers, Under

Dolphins @ Cowboys – O/U 47.5

  • Blake Jarwin? Heck Witten probably available too. Dolphins vs TE = good. I mean bad…I mean good for the TE. You get it. Good again next week.
  • Cowboys aren’t great vs TEs either. Could Gesicki actually do anything?+
  • Want to watch this Rosen-Preston connection develop
  • Cowboys but not Over (So Under)

Giants @ Bucs – O/U 48

  • Winston bounceback
  • Buc WRs bounceback
  • Tampa’s secondary has been surprisingly good. Daniel Jones may struggle.
  • Which means Engram may struggle.
  • Bucs with the Under

Panthers @ Cardinals – O/U 45.5

  • Couldn’t decide if this would be an ugly low scoring game or a shootout, but then I remembered one of them was the Cardinals. Shootout it is.
  • Cardinals take it going Over

Steelers @ 49ers – O/U 43.5

  • Jimmy G keep rollin
  • Pettis look better
  • Deebo still good
  • Niners going 3-0 but the Under

Saints @ Seahawks – O/U 44.5

  • Metcalf breakout
  • Taysom’s job by the end of the game
  • Seahawks, Over

Texans @ Chargers – O/U 48

  • Not the shoot out you’re looking for
  • Hopkins will get his but not a big game
  • Ekeler not stopping
  • Texans, Under

Rams @ Browns – Sunday Night – O/U 49

  • Gurley is back
  • Battle of RBs with Chubb going off too
  • Browns win, Over

Bears @ Redskins – Monday – O/U 41.5

  • Redskins vs WRs are baaaad. ARob bounce back?
  • Bears can be attacked by TE, so fire up Vernon Davis
  • Bears, Over
Joshua Bigbee Written by:

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