Back on the 14th of February the handsome blokes over at Toilets to Titles did the first six rounds of a dynasty start up mock draft live on the YouTube channel. I thought it would be fun to break down the six rounds they completed. I will highlight what I think are best value and worst value picks of each round. Being aware of the constantly changing values is vital to getting the edge in your dynasty leagues, for this startup ADP is an extremely helpful tool.
The settings for the T2T mocks are superflex, TE premium & 1 PPR for everyone else. The 2021 rookie class was also available for selection in this mock. The T2T gang will probably be looking to do several of these throughout the offseason. Hopefully I can be part of the next one.
There were six participants in the mock each selecting for two teams each, in your normal snake style startup draft . All these guys are super knowledgeable dynasty fantasy football players, i’ll drop their handles with the draft order below. Go check them out. As I go through the breakdown I’ll be using Dynasty Trade Calculator’s excellent tool simply to highlight how certain players are valued by the community as a whole.
You can also follow along with me on this video as well:
1.01 @MikeJernigan79 Team 1
1.02 @matchooSidelineSquib Team 1
1.03 @ThirdDownThurs Team 1
1.04 @CoachSchepps Team 1
1.05 @Nate_Dirt19 Team 1
1.06 @KBellf54 Team1
1.07 @CoachSchepps Team 2
1.08 @ThirdDownThurs Team 2
1.09 @MikeJernigan79 Team 2
1.10 @SidelineSquib Team2
1.11 @KBellf54 Team2
1.12 @Nate_Dirt Team 2
First off I’ll just touch on the 1.01. Patrick Mahomes was the first player off the board and In my opinion he should be the first player off the board in any 12 team super flex league 4 point passing TD’s or 6 point passing TD’s it doesn’t matter. The combination of floor ceiling and longevity is unmatched as a dynasty asset.
The whole first round was pretty stock standard with a couple of exceptions, the one that really stood out as a reach was Aaron Rodgers at pick 1.08. Rodgers had a great season leading the league in total passing TD’s , TD % rate and adjusted net yards per attempt. However this a DYNASTY startup mock and Rodgers is going on 38 years old and had two pretty middling fantasy finishes in the prior two seasons. More importantly though those amazing numbers Rodgers led to an average of 24 ppg. Totally respectable but you know the TD & rate is going to regress. Young stud QB’s Lamar Jackson and Justin Herbert were still on the board, these guys averaged 22.2 points per game. The dynasty value of the two young QBs is just too high, plus there’s a great chance they outscore Rodgers next year. Check out how @FFDynastyTrades have these three valued.
My best value pick of round 1 was the aforementioned Lamar Jackson who came off the board at 1.10. Obviously Lamar had a down season compared to his 2019 campaign. However I think this serves to show how high his floor is. Even with his passing regressing significantly Jackson averaged 22.2 fantasy points per a game. He just turned 24 years old in January, he already has an MVP season under his belt and plays for a smart organisation that is going to put him in a position to succeed.
The worst value pick of the second round was at the 2.11 spot with Ezekiel Elliott coming off the board just before the turn. This pick made me check the show notes again to ensure it was a dynasty mock There were clear signs of decline with Zeke as his stats dropped across the board with new career lows in rushing yards per game, receiving yards per game and yards per touch all being career lows. He was taken before the young stud running JK Dobbins, Deandre Swift and Cam Akers. I can’t imagine that happening in a real dynasty start up. Let’s check out how those stud young RBs are valued in comparison to Zeke.
The best value pick of the second round was Justin Herbert who went off the board at 2.06. Herbert is firmly in that Tier 2 of QB’s for me with Prescott, Watson, Allen, Jackson and Murray, all of whom went in round 1. From the moment he took the starting role Herbert crushed all his doubters, I was one of them but he has proved us all wrong. He reminded us all that you have to project prospects in the NFL and just because they didn’t take the reins off him at Oregon doesn’t mean he couldn’t do those things in the NFL. We just never got to see it in college. Coming off a record breaking rookie season, with a new exciting young coaching staff and plenty of weapons Herbert is the perfect building block for your superflex teams.
As we continue with the draft breakdown, a little side note. Looking at the draft rounds three to five of a superflex draft is stacked. If I could trade down in rounds one and two , add picks in rounds three to five and acquire future 1st’s and 2nd’s that is something I would be wanting to do. Back to the breakdown.
Worst value pick of the third round is Aaron Jones who was selected at 3.03. Yes he is coming off a great year and is a productive running back. However he just turned 26 in December, will be a free agent and we don’t even know where he is going to be playing. That second contract has been a death knell for more productive RB’s who had better draft capital. Jones being the worst pick of rounds three is really about the quality of the players picked after him rather than a slight on Aaron Jones. When I’m doing a dynasty startup especially in the early rounds, I’m not picking my team to set a line up. I want the most valuable liquid assets I can get, the players I think other people will want that and will grow in value. I don’t believe Aaron Jones is that type of dynasty asset.
The Best value pick of round 3 was hard. I go back and forth on my dynasty WR1 every day. All 3 of the candidates came off the board in this round. The depth of the position has seen WR’s fall in superflex drafts as people get their QB and RB , but Justin Jefferson (3.04), AJ Brown (3.05) and DK Metcalf (3.11) all still being there in round three is ridiculous. All three are way more desirable assets than Aaron Jones.
Do I have to pick only one? If that’s the case then I’m gonna take DK. DK has taken a bit of a dip lately as it’s gotten out that Pete Caroll wants to run the ball more. I’m not particularly concerned, despite letting Russ cook in the first half of the year the Seahawks still finished only 20th in the NFL in passing attempts. I don’t think the passing attempts can regress too far with an elite QB like Wilson under centre now he’s been let off the leash. DK is a monster in the red zone who can make his fantasy day with just one play. Despite the haters he’s only getting better and more refined as receiver.
The worst value pick in round 4 was James Robinson at 4.05 . By now you have a fair idea of my preferred way of approaching a dynasty startup. Robinson had a great rookie season becoming only the 5th undrafted RB in the common draft era (since 1967) to record over 1000 yards from scrimmage. The other four? Phillip Lindsay (2018), LeGarrette Blount (2010), Dominic Rhodes (2001) and Clark Gaines (1976). Not exactly a list of long term superstars.
Even knowing what he did last year, if we placed James Robinson in 2021 rookie drafts would he go before Najee Harris, Justin Fields and Ja’Marr Chase? No of course he wouldn’t but he did in this draft. Maybe some of our drafters forgot they could take rookies in this startup. I love James Robinson’s story but the odds are against him as a long term dynasty building block.
As mentioned previously, the third and fourth rounds are full of players I’d want on my roster. I’m going back to the WR well and taking CeeDee lamb who came off the board at 4.09. I think this is an unbelievable value again brought on by the current depth of WR in the NFL.
In the five games CeeDee played with Dak Prescott he was on track for over 90 receptions and 1300 yards. That he just missed 1000 yards with the QB carousel that was rotating through Dallas after Dak’s injury shows how impressive he was as a rookie. Despite going later in this startup CeeDees trade value is much higher than Robinsons.
The worst value pick of round five was Cooper Kupp who went off the board at 5.10. Ahead of guys with a lot more upside and yes I know it’s going on my tombstone…More Dynasty value. This mock stopped at the end of round six. The fourteen players that came off the board after Kupp, I would take them all ahead of Kupp except one. He’s turning 28 this season which seems to be the new age where WR value starts to drop, based on his production he’s a WR3 for fantasy purposes. Maybe Matthew Stafford coming to LA will see his stats increase. However I think part of the reason Stafford was brought to LA was to get the ball to more explosive playmakers not to rely on a Slot WR. Again if Kupp was available in the 2021 rookie drafts would he go before Travis Etienne or Trey Lance? That’s what happened here with both those guys coming off the board in round six.
The best value pick of the round five was Miles Sanders who came off the board at 5.02. Coming into last year Sanders was hyped as a late first early second round pick, he didn’t take the step forward in raw statistics that we wanted to see for fantasy. However as a runner he was even better with his YPC increasing from 4.6 as a rookie to 5.3 in year 2. In a situation in Philly that was less than ideal. This situation also led to the decline in his receiving line. A healthy Sanders is going to get 14-15 carries and 4-5 targets a game. He is still young, still efficient, the upside he had going into the start of the 2020 season is still there.
Here is the one player I’d still take Kupp over. Clearly the worst value pick of round six for me was Tom Brady picked at 6.05. At this point you know why I don’t like this pick. Old..really old, no upside, you are getting a low end QB1 high end QB2 for one maybe two years. Not a player many teams will be interested in trading for. Round 6 in a dynasty startup is still a premium pick, you want to turn that pick into a long term asset. I don’t think there is much more to say.
Lots of good picks in round six, my favourite value though is Tua Tagovailoa. I understand he didn’t light it up as a rookie. 18 months ago Tua was considered a generational prospect then he got hurt. Coming back from that injury clearly affected his confidence. He did a great job going through his progressions as a rookie, but he just needs to let it rip more. That will come with experience, being another year removed from his hip Injury his confidence will increase. He will look more like the player we saw at Alabama.
The Dolphins are loaded with picks, this offseason you will see them put the infrastructure around Tua to allow him to succeed. He’s a great value at this point in the draft and of course has a lot more dynasty value than Tom Brady.
That’s a wrap for the draft breakdown, I hope you enjoyed it and was able to take away something from it. Hit me up on twitter and let me know what a genius or idiot I am. Whilst you are there be sure to follow @Toiletstotitles and @FusionFFB.
Big thanks to DynastyTradeCalculator.com for allowing us to use their calculator values in screenshots.
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