What’s up everybody and welcome to the 1st week of the NFL Season! Every Tuesday night(8:30PM Eastern) this season, Toilets to Titles will be recording live via our Youtube channel and we’ll be releasing the episode via podcast Wednesday mornings(8:00AM Eastern). Every week we will be discussing Fantasy Football starts & sits, players to stream, DFS bargain plays as well as some players we believe are on the verge of breaking out. We will also be talking about this weeks betting lines and some locks of the week. Below you will find the notes from our Week 1 episode. If you’d like to hear us explain in more detail then check out the accompanying episode. Give us a follow on twitter @toiletstotitles…good luck in week 1!
Dudes & Duds(@CoachSchepps)
QB – Rivers @ Jax – Jags look like they are laying down, Rivers gets comfy with his new team.
QB – Brady @ NO – Another QB getting a new start…lots of weapons + a high scoring game.
RB – Gurley Vs. Sea – ATL to show Gurley off, he’ll run wild on a familiar opponent.
RB – Mostert Vs. Ari – Ari wants to play fast, a strong run game slows them down.
WR – DJ Moore Vs. LVR – Renfrow been torching the Raiders secondary at camp, enter DJ.
WR – Keenan @ Cin – Ya’ll must have forgot, Allen gonna make the world remember.
TE – Jonnu @ Den – Den let up 4th most yards to TEs last year, Jonnu should be fed.
QB – Watson @ Chiefs – new WRs, not many practices. Chiefs smother the Texans in this one.
QB – NE QB Vs. Miami – Byron, Xavien and Noah…enough said.
RB – Le’Veon @ Buffalo – 10th against the run in 2019, Ed O, Edmunds and Co. keep eating.
RB – Denver RBs Vs. Tenn – Den trying to figure out the ground game, Titans will stifle them.
WR – Boyd Vs. Chargers – LAC 5th against the pass 2019, Boyd has a rough day.
WR – Thielen Vs. GB – Jaire makes Thielen his 1st victim of the season.
TE – Engram Vs. Pitt – Pitt let up the 4th least yards to TEs last year, Minkah factor.
DFS Bargain Plays(@CoachSchepps)
QB – Phillip Rivers @ Jax ($6000)
RB – Todd Gurley Vs. Seattle ($6100)
RB – Mark Ingram Vs. CLE ($5500)
WR – D.K. Metcalf @ ATL ($5800)
WR – Emmanuel Sanders Vs. TB ($5700)
TE – Rob Gronkowski @ NO ($4900)
1 man’s garbage time, another man’s gold (@CoachSchepps)
Players that will get the bulk of their points in garbage time.
Randall Cobb/Will Fuller/David Johnson(check downs) vs. KC
Darius Slayton/Golden Tate/Evan Engram vs. Pitt
Streams of the week
- Owned/Started in 35%/6% of ESPN Leagues and 82/41 of MFL leagues.
Faces last year’s worst defense in the league against QB’s at home vs. ARZ.
- 80/34 MFL & 74/19 ESPN.
Home vs. MIA (2nd worst against QB’s last season). Still learning this difficult offense, will likely tuck and run against an improved defense, most of which are trying to learn their own system as well. Give me those rushing stats.
- 89/36 MFL and 89/17 ESPN
@ DET 29th against RB’s last season. Questions at QB. Questions with Monty.
- 91/47 MFL 86/11 ESPN.
Cam will need a safety blanket and Edelman can’t do it all. Especially until Cam really gets the offense down. Again, Miami’s defense is improved on paper, but most of the good ones are new to the defense themselves. Miami was 28th against RB’s last season.
- 43/9 MFL 8/.4 ESPN.
Been on this guy all off-season. Cheaper than McLaurin (for good reason). Philly was 30th against WR’s last season. Sims finished the last 2 games of the season last year as the WR4 and WR14 overall and had 4 TDs over the last 3 games.
- 83/34 MFL 83/8.5 ESPN.
Giants were 28th against WR’s last season. Johnson gets a healthy Big Ben back that has been looking good in camp.
- 84/49 MFL 85/42 ESPN.
Titans were 27th against TE’s all last season and haven’t changed their defense much. Athletic and will likely me a nice mismatch against the Titans LB Corp.
- 72/29 MFL and 26/3 ESPN.
Last season Week 1, only had 2 catches for 16 yards against Washington. Week 15, 5 catches for 55 yards. They play Washington this week who were 28th against TEs last season. Goederts usage increased as the WR Corp. became injured and depleted. Has stand alone value as a TE and was likely drafted as a streaming option. Philly’s WRs are already banged up again and so is Miles Sanders. Look for the TE’s to be heavily involved in week 1.
Chargers 40/30 ESPN @ CIN. Rookie QB’s first game.
Eagles 33/27 ESPN @ WAS. No real running game. Inconsistent Passing game.
More Streamers to consider
Desean Jackson, Emanuel Sanders, Allen Lazard, Tevin Coleman, Boston Scott, Big Ben, Teddy Bridgewater.
Guys to claim before they breakout
I’m telling you now because if you don’t believe me already, you will after week 1. The Packers have a tough Week 1 match-up at Minnesota. After Sternberger comes out of that match-up with a decent game, he’ll be facing Detroit in week 2, so everyone will be targeting him and you will have to pay up for him. So go get him for free now. Owned in 46% of MFL and 3% of ESPN leagues.
I know he isn’t an ideal QB for fantasy football, but he’s cheap. He was just announced yesterday to be the starter at least to start the season. He starts with the Lions, Giants and Falcons. All bad pass defenses. A banged up Montgomery plays into a heavier passing offense. A team that is bad enough to be behind in games plays into a heavier passing offense. In fact, 7 of first 8 games are lesser pass defenses. He’s worth a stash for free before you have to pay a couple dollars of FAAB just to stream him.
We know that Philip Rivers isn’t the same Philip Rivers of old, but he has always leaned on his TE’s in the past. Now that he is losing his arm strength, it is quite possible he may even look for his TE’s and RB’s even more. With the Colts moving Trey Burton to IR, this really opens up all of the opportunity for Jack Doyle.
Owned in 48% of MFL leagues and 8% of ESPN. Will likely be a big streamer on this show since he has several decent match-ups sprinkled throughout the season, but could hit big as a more talented version of Tyrell Williams since Williams is now on the shelf.
Betting segment (@Nate_Dirt19)
- Spreads from FanDuel sportsbook
Nate’s Locks of the week
Detroit -3 (-110) vs. Chicago
GB +2.5 (-105) (ML+134) at Minnesota
Chargers -3.5 (-105) at Cincinnati
Dallas -3 (-105) at LA Rams
Other lines that caught Nate’s eye
Houston +9 at Kansas City
Buffalo -6.5 vs. New York Jets
Arizona +7 at San Francisco
Nate’s bonus parlay of the week