Toilets to Titles, NFL Week 12 Primer

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“Games of the week”

  • Schepps – Ravens @ Steelers (8:20PM Thanksgiving Day)
  • Justin – Washington @ Dallas (4:30PM Thanksgiving Day) 
  • Nate – Titans @ Colts (1:00Pm Sunday)

Betting segment(@Nate_Dirt19)

  • Lines that caught my eye

Seahawks -5 @ Eagles

Packers -8.5 vs. Bears

Colts -3.5 vs. Titans

  • Locks

Rams -7 vs. 49ers

Cardinals -2.5 @ Patriots

Steelers -4 vs. Ravens

Dudes & Duds(@CoachSchepps)

  • Dudes

QB – Derek Carr @ ATL

Carr is coming off of a strong performance vs. KC (275/3TD) and is building confidence for a stretch run. He will face a weak ATL secondary and should have another strong performance.

QB – Daniel Jones @ Cincinnati 

The Bengals have thrown in the towel with the injury to Burrow. Daniel Jones has been playing well as of late and has become a bit of a dual threat at QB. The Bengals defense is pretty bad against opposing QBs, Jones should flourish.

RB – Gus Edwards @ Pitt

Though Pittsburgh has been stout vs. the run, Edwards hit them for 16/87/1TD in week #8. With only Justice Hill to share touches with him, I expect Gus to eat on thanksgiving.

RB – Zack Moss Vs. LAC

In 4 of the last 7 games, the Chargers defense has allowed 2 backs to top 10 PPR points and for the season they have let up an average of 25 total PPR points to RBs per game. Moss topped 10 PPR points 3 of the last 4 games and coming off of a Bye I think he continues to surge.

WR – Robert Woods Vs. SF

Woods blew up last week(12/130/1TD). Jared Goff and the Rams offense are focussed on their top 2 receiving threats(Kupp/Woods) & I am ready to ride that wave.

WR – Chase Claypool Vs. Bal

The Ravens are allowing the 8th fewest yards per target to opposing WRs but i’m not scared…Claypool is a big time player playing in his 1st Thanksgiving game. You know what they say, “Big time players make big time plays in big time games”. I expect this cat to ball out Thursday night.

TE – Hunter Henry @ Buffalo

Over the last 3 weeks, Henry has seen 20 total targets. Though he’s only topped 45 receiving yards once over that time frame, I like his chances of topping that total in what should be a shootout vs. the Bills this week.


  • Duds

QB – Ryan Tannehill @ Colts

Colts held Tannehill to 147/1 TD in week 10 and I think he’ll have another tough outing in Indianapolis. 

QB – Roethlisberger Vs. Baltimore

Ben was held to under 200 passing yards last time he faced the Ravens defense and I expect similar results this week. Ben is getting up there in age and the quick turnaround before a Thursday night game could put him behind the 8 ball as far as recovery goes. This game will be a slugfest and Ben will take a back seat to the ground game.

RB – CEH @ TB

Helaire owners finally got a big performance from him last week but will be disappointed with his production this week. The Bucs have the best run defense in the NFL. They have only allowed 2 backs over 10 PPR points over the last 5 weeks, 1 of which was Alvin Kamara(15 PPR Points). The ground game will be non-existent, we’ll be seeing a lot of throwing between Mahomes and Brady.

RB – Rams RBs Vs. SF

THE RAMS ARE CHUCKING IT!!! No Rams back topped 8 touches on the ground last week. I have no confidence in either of the 3 and I am avoiding them at all costs.

WR – Fulgham Vs. Seattle

The Seahawks have the 2nd worst passing defense in the NFL and on paper, this looks great for Fulgham. All that being said, With a healthy Reagor/Goedert the last 2 weeks, Travis has only seen 1 target a game. I will not be playing him anywhere this week.

WR – Hollywood Brown @ Pitt

Brown gave Fantasy owners a big ol 0 last week and my confidence in him is at an all time low. With the playoffs around the corner, most teams can not afford to risk starting a player like him. Though his ceiling is still high, his floor is about as low as it can go.

TE – Mark Andrews @ Pitt

Andrews has been feast or famine this season(Topping 4 receptions only 4 times this season). Coming off of a monster performance last week, he’ll be the focal point of Steeler defensive meetings going into the Thursday night game. Last time they saw each other, the Steelers held Andrews to 3/32. 

Streamers(@JustinFF_)

  • Streams of the week. Week 11 Recap –

The Good- Kalen Ballage had 14.1 PPR points with his 7 receptions. Damien Harris, 12.4 PPR with his 2nd TD and I did call that TD last week on the show. Salvon Ahmed, 12.4 PPR with his 2 receptions. Taysom Hill, I said last week on our show he’d be great in that cheat code TE or WR position is your league allowed it. Then I stated Sunday morning on the Blitz show for Sleeperwire that we shouldn’t be afraid to start him at QB because he would get the rushing point to make him good. He had 233 passing yard, 51 rushing yards and sniped 2 rushing TD’s from Kamara. Browns DST was the top Defense this week. Cousins was a top 4 QB. Jalen Reagor 9.2 ppr. Carolina was a Top 4 DST. I said Washington if Stafford was out. But Stafford played and Washington still finished as a Top 5 DST in most formats.

 

The Bad- Tua got benched due to performance and Fitzpatrick is still clearly the better QB for the Dolphins. Jakobi Meyers, 6.8 ppr. Josh Reynolds, 6.2 ppr with Van Jefferson sniping his TD. Dolphins DST were between the 15th-25th best defense depending on your league’s scoring.

 

The Ugly- Jameis Winston didn’t even get the start.

 

Week #12 Streamers-

  • QB’s- 
    • Tua Tagovailoa- He’s still available in nearly 50% of redraft leagues and he gets the “use this team to get things corrected” Jets this week. He will definitely get the rushing going this week and will be a viable top 12 QB.
    • Derek Carr- This call does scare me just a bit because the Raiders seem to play to the level of their opponents. So to say that since he faces the Falcons this week, and the the Jets in week 13 to finish up you fantasy regular season seems a bit scary. But at the same time, Derek Carr has some talented weapons to throw to with the Falcons and Jets as his next 2 opponents. You have to pick him up if you are streaming QB’s in Redrafts.
  • RB’s-
    • Salvon Ahmed- @ the 0-10 Jets. No reason to believe the Dolphins won’t be playing most of this game with a lead and running the ball. Still unowned in 34% of ESPN leagues.
    • Wayne Gallman- Unowned in 44% of Redraft leagues. Facing the Bengals who already aren’t that good against the run. Now with Ryan Finley at QB, you can expect decent field position and favorable possession time for the Giants.
  • WR’s-
    • Nelson Agholor, was targeted 4 times two weeks ago against Denver. 2 of those targets were deep down the field and he simply couldn’t connect with Carr. Aside from that, his game before and after that one were typical games for him this season He is averaging nearly 20 yards per reception and has 6 TD’s in 10 games this season. We know that Atlanta has one of the worst pass defenses in the league this season and they are prone to giving up the deep pass. 
  • TE’s-
    • Dalton Schultz, Washington’s front 7 are their strong point, but they are still not very good against TEs. They 19th in yards allowed and 19th in TD’s allowed against TEs and 23rd in total PPR fantasy points allowed against TEs. Schultz has consistently averaged 5 targets or more even without Dak at QB.
  • Def./ST
    • Giants, They get a Ryan Finley led Bengals team. Finley was 3/10 for 30 yards and an INT after Burrow went down. He did have a nice 19 yard run, but on the passing end I see a real opportunity for the Giants to create turnovers. Also, surprisingly the Giants are already a top 12 fantasy Defense in most scoring formats in fantasy football on the season.

 

  • More Streamers to consider
    • Wentz, Stafford, Gus Edwards, Olibisi Johnson (If Thielen doesn’t play), Robert Tonyan, Logan Thomas, Seahawks, Packers

DFS Plays(@CoachSchepps)

  • DraftKings.Com

QB – Derk Carr @ ATL ($5700)

RB –  Nick Chubb @ Jax ($7100)

RB – Taylor Vs. Ten ($5900)

WR – DJ Moore @ Min ($6200)

WR – Woods Vs. SF ($5800)

WR – Reagor Vs. Seattle ($4400)

TE – Hunter Henry @ Buff ($4800)

Flex – Chase Claypool Vs. Bal ($6100)

DST – Giants @ Cinci ($3200)

  • This lineup gives you $800 leftover if you’d like to mess around with it a bit.

 

BONUS THANKSGIVING TIERS PLAY!

T1 – Watson @ DET

T2 – Mclaurin @ DAL

T3 – Ceedee Lamb Vs. WAS

T4 – Cooks @ DET

T5 – Snead @ PIT

T6 – AP Vs. HOU

Turtleheads(They’re about to breakout)(@JustinFF_)

  • Sammy Watkins is still available in over 61% of ESPN leagues and 33% of MFL.com leagues. He will likely be back as soon as this week. Outside of Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce, no other receiving options in KC has been able to see a consistent number of targets enough to be fantasy relevant… Except Watkins in the first 4 weeks before his injury. He saw 27 targets over the first 4 week. Nearly 7 per game. I’ll take 7 targets per game from Mahomes in that KC offense in my FLEX/Backup WR role when you can get him for free in so many leagues.
John Schepps Written by:

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