Toilets to Titles, NFL Week 14 Primer

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“Games of the week”


  • Schepps – Ravens @ Browns (Monday Night Football) Ravens need a win in a bad way. The Browns are feeling themselves and plan to make a playoff run but…everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.
  • Justin – Steelers @ Bills (Sunday Night Football) Steelers to get their 2nd loss of the season. Bills make a statement to the league as they pull to only 1 game behind the once dominate Steelers for the #1 seed in the AFC.

Betting segment(@Nate_Dirt19)

  • Lines that caught my eye

Pats +5 @ LAR

Chargers +2.5 Vs. Atlanta

  • Locks

Buffaloe -2.5 Vs. Pittsburgh

Dudes & Duds(@CoachSchepps)

 

REGULAR SEASON ALL DUDES TEAM

QB – Kyler Murray

Kyler took a giant step this season & finished QB2, just 3 points behind Patrick Mahomes. Kyler Finished QB 5 or better in 7 of his 12 games through week 13.

QB – Ryan Tannehill

ADP of QB 21 and 132 overall. If you were lucky enough to grab Tannehill that late in your drafts, you were rewarded heavily. Tannehill finished the fantasy football regular season as QB7 & was QB1 once while also finishing top 5 2 other times…1 of this was this very important week for owners of his who needed a W to make the playoffs.

RB – Dalvin Cook

Cook was the 4th RB off the board behind CMC, Barkley & Zeke…he finished higher than all of them. Cook finished 1st in rushing TDs, 2nd in rushing yards & had the 6th most receiving yards of all RBs. He finished RB2 through week 13.

RB – James Robinson

ADP of RB 52 and 332 overall…this cat was the steal of every single draft. Finished the season as RB 4, behind only Alvin Kamar, Dalvin Cook & Derrick Henry…that’s some great company.

WR – DK Metcalf

DK transformed into a full-blown playmaker this season. I’ve been hearing a lot of “He is/isn’t Megatron” talk from the football fan world & I stand firm on the belief that he’s more TO than he is Calvin. The dude straight up physically dominated his competition this season, there was no stopping him. He leads the league in receiving yards and finished WR3 as far as fantasy points go.

WR – Justin Jefferson

Jefferson was drafted behind Ruggs, Jeudy, Lamb & Reagor and he outproduced them all. The 50th WR off the board in ADP and he’s your WR7 through the Fantasy Football regular season, 2 spots ahead of his partner in crime Adam Thielen.

TE – Travis Kelce

Travis Kelce is my regular season “Dude Of The Year”. I faded him and Kittle a bit this off-season because I didn’t think both could continue to dominate as they have over the past few seasons. Travis proved me wrong. Kelce has 40 more points than the next closest TE(Darren Waller) and if he was considered a WR, he’d be the WR3. 

  • Dudes

QB – Ryan Tannehill @ Jacksonville

Jags have given up the 4th most points per game to opposing QBs and Tannehill is coming off a very hot performance(389 yards & 3 TDs Vs. Cleveland).

QB – Tom Brady Vs. Minnesota

Minnesota allowed Mike Glennon to throw for 280 yards last week & Tom Brady is licking his chops…as he should be. In a must-win game & coming off of a bye week, Brady will be at his best.

RB – David Montgomery Vs. Houston

Monty was RB1 in week 13…RB1! I am riding this thing until the wheels fall off. He’s producing and he’s getting the volume. Let’s roll.

RB – Jonathan Taylor @ LVR

Taylor finished RB5 last week & heads to Vegas where he will face a defense that lets up the 4th most points to RB per game. Taylor is peaking and this is a great opportunity for him to have a monster game.

WR – Corey Davis @ Jacksonville

The Corey Davis breakout continues, he was WR1 in week 13(11/182/1TD). I’m stacking him with Tannehill this week as they have a very juicy match-up.

WR – Brandon Aiyuk Vs. Washington

When you look up Dude in the Schepps football dictionary, under Synonyms you will see Aiyuk. He’s not getting as much attention as a rookie breakout due to some of the other big names this season but over the last 4 games, he’s had the following stat lines – 6/115, 8/91/1TD, 7/75/1TD & 5/95/1TD. He’s been steady, start him up!

TE – Hunter Henry Vs. Atlanta

The Falcons have given up the 5th most points per game to tight ends this season. The Chargers offense was shut down last week and they’ll look to open things up vs. a poor Falcons secondary. Coming off of his lowest target total(2) of the season, Henry should get a lot of work this weekend.


  • Duds

QB – Jared Goff Vs. New England

The Patriots have been absolutely eliminating QBs over the past few weeks, in a playoff week you can not afford to start Goff.

QB – Baker Mayfield Vs. Baltimore

It may be hard for Mayfield owners to sit him after his monster performance last week but I think they should. Baltimore held Ben & co to 266/1TD & 1 INT 2 weeks ago and they will bring that same energy into Cleveland. 

RB – Miles Sanders @ New Orleans

Miles Sanders had 3 points last week…3. The Saints have the best rushing defense in the NFL right now & things aren’t getting any better in Philly. With Hurts at the helm, New Orleans will dare Philly to throw.

RB – Bills RBs @ Pittsburgh

If the Bills thought the match-up with San Fran was a physical one, wait till they head to Pittsburgh where they are a little pissed off. Singletary was banged up early vs. Buffalo but returned to take the bulk of the carries after Moss got banged up and fumbled. Too many questions in that backfield and not enough promise this week.

WR – Devante Parker @ KC

With Fitz in week 12, Parker finished WR11. With Tua in Week 13 he was WR62. I just don’t trust Tua and that offense enough to get Parker going. Shut him down.

WR – Broncos WRs @ Carolina

I like Patrick, I like Jeudy, I like Hamler, but…I just don’t know which WR will be the guy this week. Carolina has a solid pass defense and things won’t be easy for those WRs. One of them is bound to get in the end zone at least once but I can’t tell you who it will be. 

TE – Trey Burton @ LV

I started Burton wherever I had him last week thinking he’d build off his TE14 finish in week 11 and TE11 finish in week 12. He disappointed me by finishing behind Mo Alie-Cox and Jack Doyle. If I have a better option at TE, I am starting him over Burton.

Streamers(@JustinFF_)

Week 13 Update-

Good- Taysom Hill- Top 8 QB (I said he would be top 10), Kirk Cousins- I said Kirk should have a game similar to the previous 4 games that he had. In those 4 games he averaged 283 yards and 2.75 TD’s. He had 283 yards and 3 TDs this week. Derek Carr- Finally had a great game in a game where he should have had a great game. He was a top 3 QB this week. They still almost lost to the Jets, but at least he finally performed well for your fantasy team. Corey Davis- I spoke highly of Davis last week and he was the only WR I wrote about in the streamers section last week. He had over 35 PPR points in his breakout game in his breakout season. Robert Tonyan- Top 6 TE. Raiders and Seahawks were both top 12 DST. Baker Mayfield- Top 3 QB this week. Deebo Samuel- 13.6 PPR. Henry Ruggs- 15.4 PPR with a TD. Tyler Eifert- 10.5 PPR. 

 

Bad- James White- I don’t think anyone could have foreseen a 45-0 blowout for the Patriots over the Chargers. With this lead, there was no need for James White in his typical receiving role. He had only 3 catches for 1 yard. Latavius Murray- 3.7 PPR. I completely missed this one. I felt that Murray would be more heavily involved. Trey Burton- 1 catch for 11 yards in his worst game since Week 9.

 

Week #14 Streamers-

  • QB’s- 
    • Philip Rivers vs. LV- It’s been a while since I’ve trusted Rivers as a streaming QB, but the Colts coaching staff has proven to me that they have tightened the reigns on the ole gunslinger and are forcing him to be a game manager. As a game manager in this offense, those short dump-off passes add up real fast and the effective run game provides for far more efficient passing plays in the RedZone than what we have grown accustomed to seeing out of Rivers. Tie all that in with the fact that he faces the Raiders this week who are favorable to QB’s in fantasy and Rivers should put up another top 15 performance for you as a streamer.
    • Andy Dalton vs. CIN- In this revenge game for Andy, I am not expecting anything great from either team. I expect his offensive line to break down as usual, but I also expect big plays to be given up by the Cowboys defense as usual. 

 

  • RB’s-
    • J.D. McKissic @ SF- McKissic is very streamable in PPR leagues and borderline streamable in Non-PPR. Alex Smith has PEPPERED McKissic with targets when the game is close. Week 9 was a 3 point game against the Giants and he had 14 targets. Week 10 was a 3 point game against the Lions and he had 15 targets. Weeks 11 and 12 were not close with a combined score difference of 36 points over the Bengals and Cowboys and he averaged 3 targets per game in those 2 games. This week against the Steelers, it was a close game to the end and he had 10 targets. In short, if you can anticipate a normal or negative game script you can anticipate a lot of targets for McKissic. If you can anticipate The Washington Football team blowing someone out, you can anticipate a very low opportunity game for McKissic. I feel that the 49ers will still make this a game with Washington. A very good game in fact.
    • Phillip Lindsay @ CAR- Available in 56% of Yahoo leagues and 55% of ESPN leagues. Still hasn’t played exceptionally well all season, but his shares have been there the last 3 weeks. The Broncos face the Panthers in Week 14 so the matchup is nice as well. With good streaming options limited, I would be fine with starting an RB getting a decent snap share in a solid lineup.

 

  • WR’s-
    • Tim Patrick @ CAR- Patrick is getting a 17.6% target share. That’s 6 targets per game excluding the game against the Saints where they literally had no Quarterback. Carolina is middle of the road against WR’s and it is certain that the Broncos will have to continue to throw the ball from behind again.
    • Laviska Shenault-

 

  • TEs-
    • Dalton Schultz @ CIN- The Bengals give up the 4th most points to TEs and Schultz has averaged 6 targets per game this season. That’s the 10th most targets in the league. I’m calling for at least 12 PPR points from Schultz this week if he doesn’t score, but he very well may score on top of that.

 

  • Def./ST-
    • Titans @ Jacksonville- The Jaguars played well overall against the Vikings, but this game has 2 great running games that could cause this game to run the clock quickly and make it a defensive matchup. Both of the passing games are really good as well, but they are more efficient than explosive. 
    • Washington @ SF- Still fighting for that top spot in the NFC East, Washington looked pretty good against the Steelers and handed them their first loss of the season. And Nick Mullens simply isn’t a QB that scares me if I’m a defensive Coordinator. 

 

  • More Streamers to consider-
    • KJ Hamler, Cole Beasley, Trey Burton, 49ers vs. Washington, DAL @ CIN

DFS Plays(@CoachSchepps)

  • DraftKings.Com

QB – Tannehill @ Jax ($6700)

RB – Jonathan Taylor @ LV ($5800)

RB – McKissic @ SF ($4900)

WR – Metcalf Vs. NYJ ($8400)

WR – Corey Davis @ Jacksonville ($5700)

WR – Brandon Aiyuk Vs. Washington ($5400)

TE – Hunter Henry Vs. ATL ($4400)

Flex – Higgins Vs. Dallas ($4300)

DST – Cardinals @ NYG ($2700)

John Schepps Written by:

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