Toilets to Titles, NFL Week 2 Primer

QUICK NEWS/INJURY REPORT

  • Allen Robinson Requests a Trade
  • Le’Veon Bell, left the game with a hammy. Sent to the IR.
  • Blake Jarwin, ACL injury. Sent to the IR.
  • Michael Thomas, Sprained Ankle (Expected to miss several weeks)
  • Marlon Mack, Achilles. Sent to the IR.
  • Duke Johnson, Sprained Ankle
  • George Kittle, Hyperextended Knee (Returned to the game)
  • Justin Jackson, Quad injury. Could miss multiple weeks.
  • DeVante Parker, Hamstring injury. Questionable to play.

Games of the week

  • @CoachSchepps – Washington Football Team @ Arizona Cardinals(4:05PM)
  • @Nate_Dirt19 – Atlanta Falcons @ Dallas Cowboys (1 PM)
  • @JustingFF_ – Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1 PM)

 

Betting segment(@Nate_Dirt19)

  • Spreads from FD book

Recap from week 1

  • 👎🏻 Texans +9.5, Lions -3, Chargers -3.5, Cowboys -3
  • 👍 Cardinals +7, Bills -6.5, Packers +2.5& ML
  • 1-3 on my “Locks”

Week 2 Lines that caught my eye

  • Rams -1.5 (-110) at Eagles
  • Falcons +5 (-105) at Dallas
  • Vikings +3 (-120) (+120ML) at Indy
  • Seahawks -4 (-110) vs Patriots 

Locks

  • Bills -5.5 (-115) at Dolphins
  • Niners -7 (-105) at Jets
  • Cardinals -6.5 (-110) vs Washington
  • Packers -5.5 (-120) vs Detroit 

Dudes & Duds(@CoachSchepps)

WEEK 1 RECAP

  • Biggest hits Mostert(RB6), Le’Veon(RB43), Tyler Boyd(WR53)
  • Biggest misses: KA(WR51), Thielen(WR3)

Dudes

QB – Ryan Tannehill Vs. Jax

Jags let up 363 yards to Rivers, Tanny coming off 249/2TDs vs. Denver

QB – Trubisky Vs. NYG

242/3TD performance on the road vs. Detroit, NYG ain’t any better. He continues his hot play.

RB – Nick Chubb Vs. Bengals

I shouldn’t have to go here but people are already questioning their 1st round selection. He had 3 fewer carries than Hunt and averaged .5 more YPC. Bengals let up 144 yds on the ground last week, Chubb is gonna eat.

RB – Mark Ingram @ Houston

Another player people are panicking about. The Ravens ground game didn’t do much last week, Ingram still had 3 more carries than Dobbins. Texans let up 161 on the ground to the Chiefs. With the Dobbins getting 2 TDs last week for Baltimore, I think we’ll see the Ravens try and get Ingram going. He should have a monster day.

WR – Anthony Miller Vs. NYG

Miller went 4/76/1TD last week vs. Detroit and he has another cake match-up this week. He should be licking his chops watching the way JuJu/Diontae gutted the Giants secondary.

WR – Will Fuller Vs. Baltimore

Hey Houston, you got any more of those garbage time points? 4/72 in the 4th Vs. KC, expect to see more of that this week Vs. Baltimore

TE – Higbee Vs. Eagles

Decent week 1, 3/40. Eagles saw Logan Thomas go 4/37/1TD and Higbee is the better player with a better supporting cast. Rams should target him early and often.


Duds

QB – Josh Allen @ Dolphins

Allen is coming off a very strong performance vs. the Jets but the Dolphins aren’t the jets. Miami is deep at CB and should be able to match-up well with the Bills receivers. They will be prepared for Allen on the ground after playing against Cam week 1.

QB – Kyler Murray Vs. Washington

Played well vs. a tough 49ers defense and he’s headed right into another tough match-up. WFT forced 2 INTs vs. Wentz and had 8 sacks…they’re gonna get after Kyler.

RB – Joe Mixon @ Cleveland

The Browns held Baltimore to 21/68(3.2YPC). Mixon had a tough week Vs. LAC, 19/69(3.6YPC), and only received 1 reception out of the backfield. Could be another long week for Joe.

RB – Josh Jacobs Vs. New Orleans

Saints held TB RBs to 22/71(3.2 YPC) while focusing mainly on the TB passing attack. They will not be focusing their efforts on stopping the ground game this week and I think they will succeed.

WR – DK Metcalf Vs. New England

I think this is going to be a theme, #1 WRs who see Stephon Gilmore is not going to be having a good time.

WR – Mike Evans Vs. Carolina

Might feel like I’m just piling on right now but man, I do not feel comfortable starting him anywhere. He had a stat line of 1 for 2 in week 1. Chris Godwin(7), Scott Miller(6), and OJ Howard(6) all saw more targets than he did(4). Brady didn’t look all that great either…

TE – Noah Fant Vs. Pitt

I know what you’re thinking right now, “Coach Schepps, Fant is your guy, why would you call him a dud?” Well, Pittsburgh is great on the defensive side of the football and they just held Evan Engram to 2/9. If I have another option with a better match-up, I’m sitting Fant.



Streamers(@JustinFF_)

Streams of the week. Week 1 Recap-

Hits- Big Ben (QB6), Cam (QB8), B. Scott (7.4), Lazard (18 points/Top 18), Goedert (TE 2), Fant (TE 3), Chargers Def. (Top 5)

Miss- Bridgewater (QB 16), Cohen (6.7), T. Coleman (3.4), DeSean Jackson (6.6)

Week #2 Streamers

QB’s

(Limited decent streaming options compared to most weeks)

Philip Rivers

  • (20/5 ESPN, 72/23 MFL)

Rodgers had a down year last season and many felt that his best games were far behind him. Yet he torched this Vikings Defense for 364 yards and 4 TD’s. Minnesota has a weak secondary that may not be able to capitalize as much on Rivers’ flaws.

Jimmy G

  • (40/8 ESPN, 76/36 MFL)

The Jets are pitiful. Jimmy G. was a streamer for me last week and will likely be a lot this season. He finished as a Mid-QB2 last week. He has Aiyuk likely coming back this week and his WR’s are getting healthier. Kittle has the injury concern with the knee. But with or without him, Jimmy should eat this week. The Jets finished week 1 middle of the pack in rushing yards, against a Bills rushing attack that was supposed to be highly improved this season.

RB’s

Peyton Barbe

  • (1.3/.1 ESPN, 31/21 MFL)

I know he will be a big add for most leagues this week, but streaming RBs is a bad play, so shame on you if you are desperate for good content streaming RB’s or WR’s this early in the season. Barber did get the majority of the workload this week against Philadelphia, but he wasn’t nearly as efficient as Gibson. With Arizona being bad against the run this week against SF, there is a chance that Barber may have 1 more week of opportunity in him before Gibson is ready to completely take over.

WR’s

Parris Campbell

  • (30/1 ESPN, 60/40 MFL)

If I think Rivers can have a big week, I clearly feel that his WRs should too. TY is likely already owned, so Campbell is the streamer. I believe Campbell has a real shot to outscore TY this season anyway judging by the way the last game went down, but I’ll let you know when I’m ready to commit to that Hot Take.

Tre’Quan Smith

  • (.4/0 ESPN, 35/4 MFL)

Brees mentioned during training camp that Tre’Quan was in for a huge role this season. I don’t think that having Michael Thomas go down was what he had in mind, but here we are.

TE’s

CJ Uzomah

  • (.6/.1 ESPN, 35/21 MFL)

Cleveland struggled last week against Andrews, but let’s face it, everyone does. He had 4 catches on 5 targets for 45 yards and figures to be an important piece of the offense. They should have more RedZone opportunities this week against the Browns.

Logan Thomas

He had 8 targets last week. Only 4 for 37 and a TD, but 8 targets, and he wasn’t even considered the starter. That was Jeremy Sprinkle who had ZERO targets. He will be heavily used by a QB that struggles at times and will need that dump off crutch to lean on.

Def./ST

Rams

  • (13/6 ESPN)

Philadelphia was inconsistent on offense and Wentz turned the ball over 3 times and was held to 270 yards against Washington. Miles Sanders could make his season debut this week, but even with that, the Rams did a decent job of holding back a much more potent offense in the Dallas Cowboys.

More Streamers to consider

Burrow, Trubisky, Latavius Murray, N’Keal Harry, Anthony Miller, Kendrick Bourne, Manny Sanders, Bisi Johnson or Justin Jefferson, Titans Def.


DFS Plays(@CoachSchepps)

  • DraftKings.Com

QB – Mitchell Trubisky Vs. NYG($5500)

Mitch finished as QB8 week 1 and he’s priced as the 27th QB on DraftKings. Ben went for 229/3TDs vs. the Giants and I think Trubisky can put up a similar stat line at home vs. the Giants.

RB – Joshua Kelley Vs. KC($4700)

12/60/5YPC/1TD Vs. Cinci. Only 7 carries less than Ekeler. DJ average 7YPC vs. KC, LA would be smart to run the ball and keep Mahomes off the field. 

RB – Todd Gurley @. Dallas($6100)

Gurley had 14 PPR points last week and has a better match-up this week. Malcolm Brown gashed Dallas for 17/79/2TDs(PPR RB#5). If Gurley sniffs that, he’s worth it.

WR – Terry Mclaurin @ Arizona($5900)

McLaurin had an ok day week 1, 5/61. I like the odds of him improving on that stat line going into week 2. Paying a WR3 price for a WR1, lock it in.

WR – Keenan Allen Vs. KC($5700)

We saw Will Fuller torch the Chiefs in garbage time and I think Allen will do the same. Expect him to outplay his cost.

TE – Dallas Goedert Vs. LAR($5000)

TE1 week 1 & he’s priced as the 10th TE week 2. The way they are using him, he really should be considered a WR. Philly literally has nobody else to throw to besides Goedert and Ertz. Getting to slot him in at TE is stealing. 

 

Turtleheads

(They’re about to breakout)(@JustinFF_)

Guys to claim before they breakout

Week 1 Good Call

  • Mitch Trubisky. Had 3 TD passes and did look much improved. That could be because of that Lions Defense, but he has several juicy matchups coming up early in the season. He could hold on to this starting spot and be a weekly startable QB for very cheap still.

Week 1 Bad Call

  • Still too early to tell just yet, but Sternberger’s Zero catches on 1 target is scary. Let’s see how he does this week against the Lions because I still believe.

Week 2

N’Keal Harry.

Bill Belicheck has proven time and again that he is the best of the best at what he does. He knows what he has to do to exploit defenses and simply take what they will give you. Week 1, they played Miami who has a much improved secondary. But their run defense is still a bit exploitable. Belicheck decided on a run-heavy approach because that’s what it took to win the game. Bill also has a QB that is a very competent passer that can also move the ball with his legs. This week they play a Seahawks team that simply isn’t the Legion of Boom that they once were, especially in that secondary. Harry still did not have a bad stat line (5 for 39 on 6 targets) considering Cam only threw the ball 19 times. That’s a 31.5% target share and he caught ⅓ of all of Cam’s completed passes. There will be several more favorable matchups to come this season where you can use N’Keal. Get him now while he’s cheap. 

Anthony Miller.

We typically like 3rd-year breakout candidates. Miller is an older 3rd-year guy at 26 years old. He has shown that maturity throughout the offseason. I heard a lot about his improvement coming out of camp and admittedly chalked it up to coach-speak stuff. But there was a connection there between Trubisky and Miller and now we have news that Allen Robinson wants out of town. I had Miller down before hearing this news earlier today to talk about as a turtlehead this week, but now this shakes things up a bit. This will leave a lot of questions. Is this a Stefon Diggs situation where he’s jealous of the other WR getting targets? If he leaves Chicago, does Miller have what it takes to be the WR1 against the opponent’s DB1? Can Trubisky still be efficient enough to get Miller the ball enough to be relevant? Is Robinson really going anywhere? Is it really a contract issue? We don’t know the answers to these questions, but that’s why Miller is so intriguing to me. With all these questions and the fact that Miller still hasn’t officially “Broke out”, you should be able to get him now and stash him now and see what the future might hold.

You can find us on Twitter:

@CoachSchepps

@JustinFF_

@Nate_dirt19

@toiletstotitles

How to listen

Apple Podcasts

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-toilets-to-titles-podcast/id1523452258

Podbean

https://toiletstotitles.podbean.com/

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