Toilets to Titles, NFL Week 4 Primer

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Games of the week

  • @CoachSchepps – Pittsburgh @ Tennessee 1PM
  • @Nate_Dirt19 – Indianapolis @ Chicago 1pm
  • @JustingFF_  – Patriots @ Chiefs 4:25pm

Betting segment(@Nate_Dirt19)

Spreads from FD book

Lines that caught Nate’s eye

  • Cowboys -4.5 vs. Cleveland
  • Texans -4.5 vs. Vikings 
  • Saints -4.5 at Lions
  • Colts -2.5 at Chicago

Locks

  • Cardinals -3.5 at Carolina
  • Bills -3 at Las Vegas
  • Packers -7 vs Atlanta

Dudes & Duds(@CoachSchepps)

Dudes

QB – Stafford Vs. New Orleans

270/2 TDs Vs. Arizona, had Kenny G back for the 1st time this season and connected for 6/57/1. Rodgers torched the Saints for 283/3TDs with Lazard. Stafford gonna eat.

QB – Baker Mayfield Vs. Dallas

Have you watched the Cowboys secondary play this season? EXACTLY

RB – Devin Singletary @ LVR

Singletary is an RB1. His vision, anticipation and elusiveness make watching him very enjoyable. It’s a shame his performance last Sunday was overlooked due to the passing game. 13/71 & 4/50. Burkhead and Michel went off vs. the Raiders and Singletary will be next.

RB – James Conner @ Tennessee

Dalvin Cook absolutely shredded that Titans defense & Conner is coming off of his best performance of the season(18/109/1TD, 4/40). I think RB1 Conner is back and he’s going to roll this week.

WR – Odell Beckham JR. Vs. Dallas

*See description under Baker Mayfield*

WR – Tyler Boyd Vs. Jacksonville

Boyd is 11th in the NFL in targets heading into this game. AJ Green will draw the bulk of the attention from CJ Henderson and Co. Boyd will benefit and produce.

TE – Noah Fant @ NYJ

Fant tied Jeudy for the most receptions for Denver(5) on Sunday. M.A.C(Mo Allie Cox) had 50 yards and a tuddy vs. the jets last week, Fant tops that.


Duds

QB – Carson Wentz @ 49ers

Wentz looks pretty bad right now & I think we could be seeing Jalen Hurts soon. He doesn’t have much help but he’s not making very good decisions regardless(tied for 1st in NFL with 6 INTs). The 49ers have let up 2 Passing TDs in 3 games, while also recording 2 INTs. Wentz is in trouble.

QB – Tom Brady Vs. LAC

Brady is missing some zip on his ball and may also be missing Chris Godwin this week. Mike Evans was non-existent last week and an old Rob Gronkowski was his most targeted receiver. Chargers are coming off of back to back tough losses where they played opposing QBs tough & I think this a good match-up for them.

RB – Miles Sanders @ 49ers

The 9ers have let up about 180 yards to RBs in 3 games. They are tough vs. the run but they also have young rangy LBs who can run with Miles in coverage. Knowing Wentz isn’t a threat should allow them to focus more attention on Sanders.

RB – David Montgomery Vs. Colts

The Colts have yet to let an RB top 65 yards on the ground and have only let up 1 rushing TD(Dalvin Cook/Week 2). A lot of people are going to be counting on a Monty breakout with the injury to Cohen, I do not believe this is the week. He will be the bell cow but I do not think he tops 10 PPR points or 7 points standard.

WR – Darius Slayton @ LAR

Slayton had a quiet 3/53 last week in a game where the Giants had no choice but throw the football. The Rams defense is a step up from a banged-up 9ers defense and if Ramsey is in slayton’s future then he’s to be held in check.

WR – Julian Edelman @ KC

After going 8/179 2 weeks ago against the Hawks, he came back down to earth this past week (2/23-Raiders). He’s going up against a stout KC secondary that didn’t allow a WR to go over 15 yards this past week.

TE – Mike Gesicki @ Dolphins

Hawks have let up a total of 8 receptions for 76 yards to TEs this season. Even if Adams is out, I think Gesicki is a non-factor in this ball game.

Streamers (@JustinFF_)

Steams of the week. Week 3 Recap-

    • Hit- Braxton Berrios. 16.4 PPR points. 64 yards and the Jets only TD. Mo Alie-Cox, 50 yards, and a TD. Averaging almost 3.5 PPR points per TOUCH with a sloppy juicy schedule coming up. Miles Gaskin had 95 all-purpose yards and 5 catches. Likely a low-end RB2 in your league week 3. That’s solid for a streaming RB. Imagine if he had fallen into the endzone. 
    • Misses- Tannehill. He did have 321 yards on 37 attempts, so the process was right. But with no TD and an INT it was disappointing. Gardner Minshew, same thing. 275 yards on 42 attempts. 2 Turnovers and no TD. But, the Wins column will tell you that Minshew is a disappointment. I should know better. Joshua Kelley 10 touches 52 yards. Only 5.2 PPR points with the Fumble. This was the Ekeler week. 11 receptions from the Rookie Herbert tells me they made a conscious effort to make sure the Veteran was out there as a crutch. Interesting to see how that plays out moving forward. 

Week #4 Streamers-

QB’s

    • Ryan Fitzpatrick. After a rough Week 1 start against the Patriots, he has been really good. If you could wipe out that week 1 game, his average PPG would be the QB5 right now. Week 4 he gets a weakened Seahawks secondary who has already given up a lot of points to QBs and may now be down Jamal Adams as well.
    • Let’s try Joe Burrow again. He is currently a top 10 Fantasy QB that is still relatively unowned. And facing a weak JAX Def.

RB’s

    • Carlos Hyde. Chris Carson is looking like he may be able to play after that dirty alligator roll by Schepp’s Cowboys’ DT Trysten Hill. But they are playing the Dolphins who are still susceptible to the run game. It’s likely that the Seahawks should be up big early in this one and want to rest Wilson’s arm and Carson’s knee. With Penny still out and the injury history with the Seattle backfield, this is exactly why they brought Hyde in.

WR’s

    • Preston Williams. Facing Seattle. (Mention last week and his Knee injury from last season)
    • Lazard is still only owned in 50% of leagues. He won’t be after waivers tonight, but if you own him, start him against ATL and start him all other weeks as well.
    • Randall Cobb is worth a stream if you need a WR against the 29th ranked Vikings against WRs. Increased workload and effectiveness in that offense each week.

TE’s

    • Robert Tonyan. Has increased his role every week. Packers need that extra target out there. Falcons have given up 2nd most points to TEs. Plus, we already know the Packers will score 28 points in the final 8 minutes of the game to win it by 1. May as well stream someone from this offense.
    • Dalton Shultz. I feel like this could also be a turtlehead, but he has been pretty active in this offense. Not as active as Jarwin would have been, but they face the Browns who have struggled against TEs all season.

Def./ST

    • Rams are playing the Giants. With no run game and a QB in Daniel Jones that seems to have gotten worse rather than improved since last season, the Rams are a must-start.
    • The Broncos are playing the Jets and that is all you need to know there.

More Streamers to consider

    • Kirk Cousins, Braxton Berrios, Hunter Renfrow, Chris Herndon, Cardinals DST.

DFS Plays(@CoachSchepps)

DraftKings.Com

QB – Burrow Vs. Jax ($6300)

RB – Singletary @ LVR ($5900)

RB – Henders Vs. NYG ($5800)

WR – Boyd Vs. Jax ($6100)

WR – OBJ @ Dal ($5800)

TE – Mo Allie Cox @ CHI ($3900)

DST – Bucs Vs. LAC ($3400)

Players that are about to breakout (Turtleheads) (@JustinFF_)

Guys to claim before they breakout

Week 3

Good Call- Nick Foles. I thought they might give Trubisky another week or 2 to prove that he deserved to be benched, but he was able to prove how bad he was against a bad Falcons secondary and Foles came in to win the game. Had you taken this turtlehead after last weeks show for free, you wouldn’t have to go out and pay big for him this week if you need a QB.

Bad Call- None. Too early to tell on the Devonta Freeman just yet.

Week 4 Turtleheads-

  • Kyle Allen. He is the next man up and Haskins has continued to struggle in Washington. His accuracy and decision making are comparable to Trubisky, Rivers, and Minshew. BOOM!!! I also can’t personally wait for Alex Smith to get the opportunity to complete his comeback, but Allen has been the number 2 all season and Alex Smith has still been inactive on the weekly rosters. But he is getting closer.
  • David Montgomery. 
    • Before I read this all off, think about how you consider Monty as a Fantasy RB moving forward from here out. I took some polls to see how others view him at this point. Here are the results.
      • Just over ½ of the people I could poll felt that he was an RB2 from here on out
      • Just under half felt that he was a low end RB2 or worse, with approximately 25% of those saying RB3 or worse.
      • So, about 40 out of 260 people think he is worse than an RB2.
    • Monty has been all over the board in 3 weeks. He had a bad game this week against Atlanta because Trubisky put them in a negative game script early on and they threw the ball all day after that to get back in the game. I don’t see that being the case often moving forward since the schedule for the Bears is very RB friendly and Foles has the ability to occasionally play good football. 
    • He had an average game against DET in week 1, where he saw his least amount of touches this season with 14. Coincidentally, it was also Cohen’s most active game of his short season with 9 touches. This also will not be a problem for him moving forward with Cohen out for the season. Some of those touches will likely go to Corderelle Patterson or maybe Ryan Nall (who has 1 touch in 3 games this season) may get a touch or 2 here and there. But most of Cohen’s touches are likely to go to Monty. This just adds extra opportunity. 
    • He also had 1 good game against the Giants. This was also a game that he had 19 touches (a season high). Monty isn’t an explosive back, so he does need a lot of touches to be relevant. But this upcoming schedule also helps.
        • Week 4 IND. 5th against the run. Now is the week to trade for him
        • TB- 27th against the run
        • CAR- 32nd
        • Rams- 23rd
        • NO- 13th
        • TEN- 19th
        • MIN- 22nd
        • Week 11 Bye
        • GB- 23rd
        • DET- 30th
        • HOU- 26th (Start of fantasy playoffs)
        • MIN- 22nd
        • JAX- 18th
    • He will be a RB2 at worst most weeks, and have some RB1 weeks in a breakout season.
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